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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward pattern. It often acts as a kind of apology. We regret we misjudged your team in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic improvement is handed the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring superior leadership or simply the greatest shock.

But the latest field is fundamentally unique. The pool of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with recent conference champions fading and longtime underperformers rising in unison. Under an normal year, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in this wild and entertaining year, he's up against several other outstanding coaches.

This is how the ideal vote ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right environment, the QB has been given the chance to display his special ability. From Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's sustained dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an offense built solely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that springs wide receiver targets everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads haven't been available, he's been capable to conjure magic from nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Almost each decision – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense hype he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a ordinary season, he would be the runaway choice. Yet this isn't a typical season!

Where Johnson's case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term success. However Johnson falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has mastered the off-field aspects, which wasn't a certainty after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect staff mix of youth and experience, he hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an early strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason setback had the team wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller could have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. Through the mid point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away since that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him just one place ahead of other QBs.

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